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ASEAN’s post pandemic future will be shaped by greater regional trade and integration, shifts in global manufacturing supply chains and acceleration in digitalisation. Market activity will be driven by the disruption caused by new technologies and the increasing focus on sustainability.

Recurrent waves of COVID-19 have impacted the ASEAN economies in varying degrees in recent months, forcing many countries to reimpose restrictions. As a result, the region’s 2021 growth forecast has been downgraded by the Asian Development Board (ADB) from 4.4% to 4.0%. Unsurprisingly the short-term investor sentiment towards ASEAN has turned negative. Still this shadow cast by the pandemic should not detract one from the region’s long-term fundamentals which remain intact and compelling. ,horse betting huawei app gallery

The ten countries in ASEAN form an economic powerhouse with a combined GDP of USD 2.6trillion1, currently making it the seventh-largest economy in the world. By 2030, the region is expected to become the fourth largest single market in the world2, behind the US, China and the European Union. Favourable demographics is another plus point. ASEAN’s population of approx. 660 million3 makes it the 3rd most populous market after China and India. More importantly, the region’s median age in 2040 is expected to be 35 years versus China’s 47 and Japan’s 504, aided by a growing working population.

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construction cost in malaysia,ADB forecasts the region’s growth to recover to 5.2% in 2022 at current vaccination rates. Growth aside, other macro factors across the region seem encouraging. Inflation, for example, has been relatively benign; both headline and core inflation have been trending lower. See Fig 1. The rebound in commodity prices has not translated into a broad-based increase in consumer price inflation. With inflation largely expected to remain within the ASEAN central banks’ targets, it is likely that policymakers will maintain an accommodative policy stance to support their economic recoveries. Some even have room to cut rates further should the need arise.

Another closely monitored indicator is a country’s external balance. Here too the numbers seem healthy; within the ASEAN-5 (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand), all except Indonesia boast positive current account balances as a % of GDP. See Fig 2. Meanwhile fiscal deficits are coming off the highs seen in 2020 but are unlikely to come down to pre-pandemic levels in the near term given the fact that many governments have pledged higher spending in 2021 to tackle the COVID-19 challenges. See Fig 3. ,best live roulette casinos

The region’s strategic location has enabled it to become a major global hub of manufacturing and trade flows. As such, the recovery in global trade with the reopening of the developed markets is a huge tailwind for the region. Based on data from the ASEAN-5, exports have recovered and are back to pre-COVID-19 levels. See Fig 4. Stronger US demand will also be particularly beneficial given that the US accounts for more than 12% of goods’ exports. ,bmw championship

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casino chip,Longer term there are three areas that we think should facilitate robust growth in the region, i.e. greater regional integration, faster digital adoption and an increasing focus on sustainability.

The COVID-19 pandemic catalysed ASEAN to push ahead with its integration agenda which will lead to enhanced connectivity and improved competitiveness. Fortunately, the drive for stronger trade ties were unhampered as countries resorted to online negotiations even as the pandemic raged. Free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the mega trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), was signed after eight years of negotiations in November 2020. The RCEP is important as it unifies existing FTAs between ASEAN and existing partners and will be the world’s largest FTA measured by GDP, even bigger than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the EU, the MERCOSUR trade bloc in South America, and the United States–Mexico–Canada Free Trade Agreement. ,top 10 online roulette casinos

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mobile casino masuk RM100, free RM50,Internet usage in the region continues to multiply. With access to goods, food, healthcare, education, and entertainment, just a click away, going digital has almost become a necessity in people’s daily lives. And this transformation, accelerated by COVID-19, is impacting both businesses and consumers. ASEAN member states are working together to help businesses capture opportunities generated by this digital boom.

kb99bet,Repeated COVID-19 lockdowns have sparked new online habits which in turn has propelled e-commerce. Online platforms have gained massive popularity and are the fastest growing pillar of ASEAN’s internet economy. In fact, ASEAN countries are in discussions over a potential ASEAN Agreement on e-commerce to establish trade rules and lower operating barriers to entry. The knock-on benefits extend to physical infrastructure such as distribution warehouses and data centres to ensure a seamless digital journey for customers.

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Investments in infrastructure are crucial to boost economic activity and create jobs. Whilst COVID-19 highlighted the conspicuous infrastructure gaps in healthcare, telecommunications and logistics which ASEAN governments sought to fill on an urgent basis, there are also other areas that need to be improved and upgraded. According to Asian Development Board, ASEAN needs to invest USD210 billion yearly to keep up with the region’s development goals and challenges posed by climate change. ,what is rome statute malaysia

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online roulette bonus,COVID-19 has cast a big shadow on ASEAN economies and corporate earnings in the near term. Nonetheless the region’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. Furthermore, many companies are poised to benefit from ASEAN’s post pandemic recovery. Investors may wish to consider the price-to-book valuation measure at this juncture; on this basis, valuation across most sectors look attractive.

Sources:
1 horse betting top up RM100 (Singapore), CEIC, UN DESA, Morgan Stanley Research. Latest full year 2020 data
2 https://www.enterprisesg.gov.sg/overseas-markets/asia-pacific/asean/overview
3 https://www.statista.com/statistics/796222/total-population-of-the-asean-countries/
4 https://www.uobgroup.com/web-resources/uobgroup/pdf/research/ASEAN-Focus_II_3q19.pdf
5 IHS Markiteconomics
6 https://www.freiheit.org/sites/default/files/import/2020-12/24820-api2020finalv5.pdf
7 https://nextbn.ggvc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/e-Conomy_SEA_2020_Report.pdf
8 Infrastructure Leading Southeast Asia’s Economic Recovery – Deloitte and Infrastructure Asia Report, 2020

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